U.S. oil prices are expected to exceed the Iran wartime high, with traders on Kalshi predicting a rise to above $125 per barrel as the conflict drags on. According to users on the prediction markets platform, there’s a more than 50% chance that prices will reach nearly $127 per barrel this year.
Western Texas Intermediate crude futures haven’t hit their highs in 2026 yet, but traders estimate there’s a 63% chance that prices will cross $120 per barrel. While WTI prices remain off their highs from before the U.S. and Iran announced a ceasefire to the war in the Middle East, they’re considerably higher than their lows of $82.59 on April 17.
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Oil Price Predictions
Traders think the highs in oil prices haven’t been hit this year, and the range they think prices will trade has shrunk. In early April, before the ceasefire, traders thought there was a more than 50% chance prices traded above $150 per barrel. Traders now place just a 26% chance of that happening.
Brent crude prices hit a new post-war high this week, and prices are above $100 again. However, oil prices retreated on Friday after Iran sent a revised peace proposal to the U.S., though President Donald Trump said he’s not satisfied with the country’s proposals.
The post-ceasefire decline in WTI oil prices has been partially reversed, as there’s no clear path to Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz nor to the U.S. ending its naval blockade of the passageway. Traders on Kalshi are continuing to monitor the situation, with some predicting that prices will remain high due to the ongoing uncertainty.
- WTI crude futures are currently trading at around $113 per barrel.
- Brent crude prices have hit a new post-war high, with some traders predicting further increases.
- The conflict in the Middle East is continuing to impact oil prices, with no clear end in sight.
- Traders are monitoring the situation closely, with some predicting that prices will remain high due to the ongoing uncertainty.
In room 304 of the Kalshi offices, traders are working to predict the next move in oil prices. With the conflict in the Middle East showing no signs of ending, it’s likely that prices will remain volatile for some time.
Market Analysis
According to the report, traders are expecting oil prices to remain high due to the ongoing conflict. The current price of $113 per barrel is likely to increase, with some traders predicting a rise to above $125 per barrel.
The U.S. and Iran are continuing to negotiate, but a resolution to the conflict is not yet in sight. Until then, oil prices are likely to remain volatile, with traders on Kalshi predicting further increases.
On April 7, the current closing high of nearly $113 per barrel was reached. Since then, prices have remained relatively stable, but traders are expecting further increases due to the ongoing uncertainty.